I had coffee yesterday with Crawford del Prete, EVP at IDC.  We were discussing some of the areas in which my partner and I are going to be making some investments, when he reminded me of a quote by Paul Saffo.

“Never mistake a clear view for a short distance.”

I like the quote in particular, because it fits with earlier comments I’ve made about companies with products that have been “directionally correct,” but too early.  I think I mentioned the Apple Newton.  That example sort of belies the notion of “first-mover advantage,” doesn’t it?

There’s been a lot of excitement in the technical press lately about de-duplication and continuous data protection technology in the storage market.  There have been some partnership announcements, new product announcements, and some announcements of customer wins.  There have also been some very high valuations of a few companies that participate in those markets, so I suspect there are some very happy investors, if the valuations hold on long enough. 

There is no doubt that the technologies have their place and there are first movers, both on the supplier side and the customer side.   If you are a first-mover supplier, the question is, “How do you find the first-mover customers?”  And if you are not a first-mover supplier, how do you infuse a dose of reality on the press, while explaining why you don’t yet have what they insist you “must have, if you are going to be relevant.”  It’s hard to do without sounding like a poor sport. But, in fact, your dose of truth serum might be just what the technical press and a yet-to-be-informed buyer needs. 

In technology, it’s not just a question of “if” or “when.”  It’s also a question of “Which horse for which course?” When I was manager of technology procurement at a large, global financial services company, we had individuals that would take the better part of a year evaluating and testing a piece of technology that could have a major positive impact on the company, if it worked correctly.  Oh, yes, and a major negative impact on the company, if it did not.

So, if you are not a first-mover, fear not.  While many will be convinced by their clear view that the new technologies will be rapidly adopted by everyone, it will be a very long walk for some customers.  In the meantime, there’s still a market for mainframe and open-systems tape, for tape libraries, and for virtual tape.  And there’s money to be made there.